USDA’s report for February milk production showed U.S. milk production only 0.6% higher than last year, adjusted for leap year in 2008. This was a smaller increase than January which was up 0.8%. Milk cow numbers continue to decline dropping 36,000 head or 0.4% since the end of last year. February milk cow numbers were just 0.1% higher than a year ago.

California continues to experience a drop in milk production being 1.2% lower than a year ago in January and 2.4% lower in February. Compared to a year ago, California had 0.9% fewer milk cows and 1.6% less milk per cow. Idaho also experienced 1.2% less milk per cow, but 2.8% more milk cows netted 1.6% more total milk production. Arizona had 2.2% more cows slightly offsetting 1.2% less milk per cow netting 0.7% more total milk production. Cows were down 2.1% in New Mexico but 9.1% more milk per cow netted 6.8% more total milk. Texas continues to lead all states in increases in milk production with February production up 11.2% from 6.4% more cows producing 4.5% more milk.

In the Northeast, cow numbers were down 0.5% in New York with no change for Pennsylvania. Both New York and Pennsylvania had increases in milk per cow of around 0.3% resulting in New York’s total milk production down 0.2% and Pennsylvania’s up just 0.2%.

In the Upper Midwest, milk production continues to increase in both Wisconsin and Minnesota with February production up 1.0% and 2.5% respectively. Cow numbers were 0.4% higher in Wisconsin and 1.1% higher in Minnesota. Milk per cow was only 0.6% higher in Wisconsin but up 1.5% in Minnesota. Iowa had 0.5% fewer cows and only 0.3% more milk per cow resulting in total milk production being down 0.3%.

Two other states with relatively large decreases in milk production were Vermont, down 5.3% and Washington, down 3.5%. Both states had fewer milk cows and less milk per cow.

Rather small increases, and in many cases decreases in milk per cow as well as fewer milk cows for several states reflects the unfavorable operating margins to dairy producers stemming from the combination of low milk prices and relatively high feed costs. We can expect increases in milk per cow to remain well below normal increases and milk cow numbers to continue to decline as we progress through the year.

With a higher slaughter rate of dairy cows (now running about 25% higher than a year ago) and another CWT herd buyout likely the nation’s cow herd will continue to decline through the reminder of the year. Relatively low milk prices and high feed costs will hold increases in milk per cow well below the more normal increase of near 2%. This means that total milk production for the year could be up less than 0.3%. USDA’s March outlook has 2009 milk production 0.8% lower than 2008.

With forecast for a continued slow down in milk production and some improvement in milk and dairy product sales wholesale prices of butter, cheese and even nonfat dry milk and dry whey have shown improvement. As of March 18th, CME butter was $18.25 per pound, cheddar barrel cheese $1.34 per pound and 40-pound cheddar blocks $1.2675 per pound. For two consecutive weeks the CCC made no purchases of butter under the support program. Retailers are featuring butter and cream for butter making is tighter as cream moves to other cream use products for the Easter holidays. Reports are that some retailers are also having specials on cheese as well as beverage milk products. USDA reports that January total beverage milk sales, adjusted for calendar year were 0.3% higher than a year ago. But, the weakness of the economy appears to be impacting organic milk sales which have been increasing in the double digits annually. However, January sales of organic whole milk were 2.6% lower than a!
year ago, compared to traditional whole milk being down 1.3%. Reduced-fat organic milk sales were down 4.7% compared to traditional 2% and 1% milk sales 3.2% and 4.2% higher respectively.

Hopefully milk and dairy product sales can continue to hold. The weak economy and increased un-employment will continue to negatively impact restaurant sales particularly for butter and cheese. However, with cheese prices lower than a year ago some restaurants, especially pizza businesses, are looking at additional cheese use as well as efforts to attract customers. The world economic recession will reduce U.S. exports of dairy products in 2009. USDA estimates dairy exports will be down from 2008 about 42% on a fat basis and 29% on a skim-solids basis reflecting relatively greater decline in cheese and butter exports compared to skim milk powder and whey exports.

Dairy product prices and milk prices should continue to strengthen from current levels each month through December and into 2010. There are differences in opinions as to how much strength we can expect. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) recently reported to U.S. Congress that for 2009 the Class III price could average $11.78, the Class IV price $10.55 and the U.S. All Milk price $13.08. USDA in its March outlook gave the following ranges for 2009: Class III $11.05 to $12.05, Class IV $9.95 to $11.05 and the U.S. All milk price $12.05 to $13.05. I could see the Class III price and the U.S. All Milk price ending up being at least $1.00 higher than these two forecasts. Currently Class III futures are averaging higher than these forecasts at $12.93 for the year and Class IV at $10.87. If these future market prices materialize, the U.S. All Milk Price would average near $14.00. But, even with these higher milk price relatively high feed and other costs k!
eeps operating margins for dairy farmers at unfavorable levels. MILC payments which kicked in for February (estimated around $1.50 for February) will only provide partial relief from existing depressed milk prices. As we look further ahead, the slow down in milk production, and hopefully with some economic recovery, milk prices will continue to improve through the year and into 2010.

Robert Cropp
racropp@wisc.edu
University of Wisconsin-Madison

In any case, make sure to think twice before leaving a job. At some businesses it is required to give notice. If you do not give notice your vacation time or any benefits that you may be entitled to could be forfeited by leaving without notice.

Always make sure to read the employee handbook or any document that you signed at commencement of employment. It is standard for businesses to have a policy regarding resignation.

If a contract was used on your employment agreement make sure to review it before giving notice. Always, leave in a professional manner. In most cases employers will provide good references if you leave in a professional manner.

Don’t burn any bridges. If you leave without notice, future employers may find out and it does not look good for you as a potential employee. Plus, it is really unlikely that you can use this employer as a future reference if you leave on bad terms.

Your first task should be an inventory of what you are able to do; skills and personality. Is not good idea to apply for a job or position without knowing what skills are required. If you are applying for a position that you don’t have the experience to do, you may not get an interview, or if the employer decides to hire anyway and provide the opportunity to learn on the job, the compensation may not be the same as someone who has experience.

Some job seekers seem to focus too much on their educational background. Guess what? While you have worked hard to obtain your education, it is probably not exactly a good idea to assume that a degree by itself will guarantee you a job. Some employers may consider someone without the educational background, but employers will probably place more weight on your years of working experience rather than formal education.

Some employers or hiring authorities will not pay a prospective employee what he/she thinks they are worth. Often employers or businesses will use the current pay structure or what similar businesses are paying to base their wages or salary compensation. In addition to that, some managers would have a certain amount of money for specific position regardless of how qualified you are. A typical example is a position where you are asked to supervise others yet your salary does not reflect the responsibilities that you have taken on by supervising others. “Simply your salary should not be the same as those that you supervise”. Although some job seekers would take the position in order to develop their supervisor skills even if compensation is less.

Many job-seekers do not perform well during interviews either by phone or in person. So you may want learn how to interview and present your self in a positive manner. Some job-seekers may go to an interview thinking way ahead about the financial side of the job but forgetting how to convince a manager that they are the right person for the job. In many cases those job-seekers who were more interested in getting their “foot at the door” rather than money actually got hired and received a good compensation.

Do you know what are you getting into? Learning more about the scope of the job, business culture and general management will help you make a decision of how the business is run and if it will be a good fit for you. So if possible during the interview try to talk to current employees and find out how things work.

Some locations have higher cost living and thus when you look at the financial picture in some cases after you do the math you will figure that X salary translates into less money when you consider the cost housing and living expenses.

Before you think about your next move make sure you figure out your financial implications. Otherwise, you soon will realize that the job you have taken was not what you though it would be.

1. You may want to have a work history, preferably a resume stating your work history, accomplishments and skills. While a job application with the employer will formalize your hiring, a resume will serve as marketing tool to sell your self as the best candidate for the job. Also, a hiring manager is able to make a decision about you more quickly based on the information presented in your work history/resume. The faster a hiring manager can process your information, the faster you both can move on to pursue other opportunities.

2. Compensation. What do you think your skills are worth? You can check around and see what other people are making, but when it comes to compensation, the main issue is what you are able to do for any business that may hire you. What do you bring to the table or business? It could be that you can sell (feeds), fix (equipment), market (commodities) or treat animals (herdsman) etc.

3. Location, location, location. Are you willing to relocate? Finding an ideal job in a specific area may not be an attainable goal because the job market for your position may be a competitive one or there may be limited businesses in your area.

4. Timeline. Do not wait until the last moment to begin looking for work if you are aware that is time for a change in you career. Whether your employer is closing, downsizing or simply that you want to leave, making decisions on the run will not help you make the right decisions.

In the end the decisions you make today will directly impact your long-term career goals, personal life, and future.

Hiring: Some workers will work during the warm months of the year and then leave once winter comes. (Migrant workers) As is currently the case a lot of workers working in dairies are staying through the year and since milking is a 365/day a year. They usually don’t leave. As for landscaping companies the job is seasonal in nature.

Training: If you have a relative stable workforce and have the time to training you must figure out what kind of workers you have in order to spend time training. (Some Hispanic workers work for three to six months and leave then comeback to another operation or not return at all). So much amount of training do you want to spend on temporary help?

Family: in some business (dairies) a whole family provide the labor thus if someone get upset you as employer you may have to deal with it and perhaps find new workers. This arrangement works fine as long as there is peace among family workers.

Housing: in many agriculture business employers offer housing as a benefit. If housing is offered you may have to comply with the town or township or city housing regulations. In some cases business would rent property and provide as a benefit in any case you may want to check the property on a monthly basis and set ground rules for it uses.

Employee Orientation: You may want expend some time explaining pay day, time police, tax deductions and other business policies (it will reduce your headaches at a later time).

Bilingual: In some business having a bilingual (fluent in two languages) worker makes a lot of sense. It may help reduce communications issues plus she/he may have a better understanding of your business.

Culture Speaking: No you don’t need to smile all the “time” your treatment or management of your work force depend of your own ability to deal with people (hiring, firing, management people skills)

The bottom line is that your relation with your workers in general Hispanic or no depends on your ability to manage a work force.